LA STIMA DELLA DURATA DELLA "VITA DELLE IMPRESE" ALLA LUCE DELLE EVIDENZE DEGLI ULTIMI 90 ANNI

ISSN 1593-9154 In this paper a new field of research is briefly outlined in terms of estimation of the life duration of private and public companies. The basic idea is to change the focus of credit rating shifting from the short term point in time default probability to a long term through the cycle survival probability. To this extent some estimation are made available starting from the Moody’s default corporate data base covering 1920-1998. Several operating implications are briefly discussed regarding the risk-adjusted discount rate, the economic value of High Yield business, the Goodwill accounting treatment and the Going Concern valuation. This empirical research can be considered a part of the Biological Theory applied to Finance and Capital Markets.